Apr 28, 2020, 10:51 AM
P not a belief system. The masses can not “convert to P”, it doesn’t work like that. How then will P change the world?
P is a technology and like all other technologies it goes through phases of development and adoption. In the early phases every technology borders on useless. The first computers (and robots) were rare and complex limited use toys seen by only a handful of dedicated specialists and understood by even less.
Computing had lots of early dead ends much the same way that we have discovered dead ends in libertarianism or religion.
As the technology matured and became more complex (and useful), computers turned into expensive, massive machines that required teams of experts to design, assemble and run.
In 1943 Thomas Watson, president of IBM, famously said “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
One of the biggest experts in the emerging field of computing got it wrong. Why? Because he was judging the technology based on its merits in 1943.
As computers evolved so did the market and demand for them yet the underestimating of the power of computers never ended.
In 1977 Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation said “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Again, a ridiculous statement in retrospect, but reasonable when looking at what computers offered in 1977.
It takes many expensive and time consuming iterations for a technology to mature enough that average people can understand it, let alone use it or gain value from it.
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” – Bill Gates, 1981.
Another wrong prediction by an expert looking at a technology in its infancy.
“Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” – Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995
Could you have predicted the future of the internet in 1995? If the elites could have predicted that a free speech platform would eat their precious newspapers and news networks, forever eliminating the gatekeepers do you think they would have let it keep developing?
No one, not me, not Curt, not you, none of us can predict how P will be used in 20 years or its effects on society and I am thankful for that. If the elites knew what we were doing they would have made sure Curt (and maybe a few of you) disappeared a long time ago.
Not knowing what’s going to happen is scary if you lack self confidence in your ability to evolve and overcome. Predictions and dreaming about a P future of mass adoption are distractions that don’t move us forward.
The power of P will grow at exactly the rate and in the direction that its underlying technologies are growing, no faster, no slower. They will grow in the direct of producing the most value for the people investing in them. Markets in all things.
P is at the place where computing was in 1981. Just starting to be useful for people who didn’t dedicate their lives to developing the technology and attracting the pioneers who would take it to the masses.
Soon we will see the emergence of the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of P. People who can make applications for P that appeal to the masses.
If you want to see P having more of an effect on the world you must do more than follow along and experiment. As Curt works out the underlying technology we must start producing and SELLING solutions.
Take the underlying technology and make something out of it that solves a problem for the masses. Sell it, profit and reinvest in R&D.
Today everyone walks around with a powerful super computer in their pocket. They use it to do things Thomas Watson would have never imagined in 1943.
We can not predict the applications that will bring P to the market and the masses. We must try many things and double down on what’s working. Get out and be creative. Embrace the opportunity in this chaos.
In P we don’t predict the future. We make the future.